Over the past few weeks, the Kyoto Protocol has been front and centre more and more across Canada. Letters to editors, comments on radio and television and general discussion - indeed on this site's 'your opinion' page - among the common folk who make up the core of Canadian society show an increasing need for information about the Kyoto Protocol. Let us have a look at what is causing all the fuss.
When people think 'Kyoto," they more likely think 'global warming.' This term refers to a "gradual rise in the surface temperature of the earth." This process is complex and involves weather, climate, greenhouse gases including the so-called 'enhanced greenhouse effect.' Some of these things occur naturally. Weather, for instance, is beyond our control and is measured in terms of wind, temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation. A rainstorm is weather as is a sunny day.
Greenhouse gases are "material found in the atmosphere that reflect and block the sun's energy from the earth. Primary greenhouse gases include water vapour, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and chloroflourocarbons [CFCs]. Except for CFCs, these gases occur naturally and produce the greenhouse effect. This effect is a natural and necessary process. "It keeps the earth 30 degrees C warmer than it would otherwise be and is essential to life as we know it."
The 'enhanced greenhouse effect' has come about because "over the past one hundred years, human activities have resulted in a sharp increase in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. More greenhouse gases means more infrared radiation from the sun is being trapped in the atmosphere and is bouncing back to earth. Thus, we are experiencing an 'enhanced' greenhouse effect that results in 'global warming' or an increase in the earth's average temperature."
What causes this 'enhanced greenhouse effect'? Undoubtedly, an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide; this is responsible for "over 60 per cent of the 'enhanced greenhouse effect." [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Control] The primary cause has been the increase in the use of fossil fuel, that is, coal, oil and gas, by industry and automobiles. Deforestation also releases carbon dioxide. Other gases such as nitrous oxide, CFCs and ozone also contribute to the remaining 'enhanced greenhouse effect.' Interestingly, flooded rice paddies and herds of cattle contribute methane gas as do waste dumps, coal mining and natural gas production.
Scientists give the consequences of global warming to Canada to be that the average temperature on earth will rise by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C. by 2100. These scientists forecast that "such temperature rise will have serious consequences for the earth's ecosystems and human beings."
What to do? The Kyoto Protocol is an attempt to do something about the dire predictions. The questions then become, how and when.
According to Canada's prime minister, the time is now. He has not been too clear on the 'how' other than to state repeatedly that Canada will implement the protocol by year's end. The uproar that has been heard coast to coast has been caused not by whether or not to implement the protocol but because the base line is a 1990 standard of emissions, several provinces have moved well beyond those levels, and Ottawa has not provided a cost analysis. It is very much like buying a pig in a poke. The idea has merit but because the end cost is unknown, there is a danger in leaping before looking. Excuse the metaphors.
The history of the Kyoto Protocol goes back to 1992 when, in Rio de Janeiro, 154 countries - Canada included - signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Control. The objective of the Convention is to "stabalize greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner."
That meeting was followed by others in Berlin in 1995, Geneva 1996, Kyoto 1997, Buenos Aires 1998, Bonn 1999, The Hague 2000, Bonn 2001, and Marrakech in November 2001. Each of these meetings was called a 'COP' [Conference of the Parties] and was numbered 1 through 7. It was at COP 7, in Marrakech, that the stage was set "for countries to ratify the Protocol and [to] bring it into force." The USA participated in COP 7, but reaffirmed that it did not intend to ratify the Protocol. Without the USA, it might be difficult to bring the Protocol into effect. The USA has indicated that it has developed its own parallel to greenhouse gas emissions.
"Under the Kyoto Protocol, each country's emission targets must be achieved by 2008-2012 with demonstrable progress by 2005. However, because of conditions, countries undergoing the process of transition to a market economy accorded flexibility in meeting their goals. These countries include Bulgaria, The Czech Republic, Hungry, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Ukraine."
Inasmuch as each party to the Kyoto Protocol signed the agreement in 1997, each country must still ratify it at home. "In Canada's case, the federal government must ratify the Protocol in the House of Commons. The Protocol will enter into force 90 days after it has been ratified by at least 55 members of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Control, in developed countries representing 55 per cent of the total 1990 carbon dioxide emissions. To date, this threshold has not been met."
The Kyoto Protocol should not be viewed as "a win-win or perfect situation." While the objective of the Protocol is to "stabilize the planet's climate over the long-term [indeed it does have an important benefit], it does have an economic price tag in the short-term."
For Canada, the Protocol does present a liability. The Protocol will "severely disrupt the oil sector." Moreover, the "price of energy [especially coal and oil] may rise to induce conservation, energy efficiency, fuel switching, and the development and deployment of new technologies and energy forms. The price of manufactured goods may also increase due to the higher production costs [higher energy prices and the cost of making production environmentally friendly."
Additionally, "many sectors of the economy will be disrupted by the Protocol. Companies will have to introduce new technologies and abide by stricter environmental codes. Governments may also have to increase spending to develop and enforce environmental regulations, upgrade infrastructure and provide aid to businesses. This may result in business closures, increased unemployment, higher taxes and government deficits in the short term."
Ottawa intends to ratify the Protocol despite increasing protests from provincial governments, in particular, British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario. Other provinces are leaning toward joining the protest.
Earlier this year, Alberta released a report that suggested "the federal government's strategy ignores economic realities and that the Protocol will cost Canadians between $23-40 billion a year." In case that figure was missed on first reading, let's put it again, THAT'S 23-40 BILLION DOLLARS ANNUALLY. In response, the federal government stated that "it will consult the provinces about how to meet its commitments to ratify the protocol." Ottawa's statement suggested it might be flexible on its ratification deadline. So far, Prime Minister Jean Chretien has ignored the provinces and has indicated that the end of year ratification will go ahead. Question: Would you buy a used car from this salesman? Answer: Not bloody likely.
To check out the above information and to see the quotes, go to www.mapleleafweb.com. Look for Environment - The Kyoto Protocol and Global Warming.
Bob Orrick is a private tutor of English grammar, literature, poetry and Canadian history to off-shore youngsters. His pupils hail from such places as Taiwan, China, Japan, Hong Kong, Korea and Venezuela. He was previously in international marketing, was a ministerial assistant to a provincial cabinet minister, spent a few years as a reporter then editor of a community newspaper and enjoyed a career in the Royal Canadian Navy.
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